THE NEXT STEP: THE BIG PUSH
Paul Tomkins 03 May 2006
It's one season I never thought I'd be sad to see the end of, given it seems to have been going on for the gestation period of an obdurately overdue elephant. But the way things are currently panning out, the end can only come too soon.
Ten wins on the spin: those dark days of winter seem a long time ago now. From goal-shy 'failures' to a team averaging three goals and three points per game since mid-March.
Last August I felt this was a campaign where the Reds needed to put down a marker on a future title challenge, rather than expect to make one this time around. I think I described it as building a camp on Everest – you climb in stages. Of course, had Chelsea experienced a disastrous season, this would be good enough for a title challenge; 79 points has won the title in recent years, as has a total as low as 75. But Chelsea remain extremely consistent.
While two decades ago 'surprise' teams rarely won England's top division (after all, it was mostly Liverpool), there were always teams like Southampton and Watford who could spring a shock 2nd place finish. These days the surprise tends to come in the team that finishes 4th. The top three rarely includes an unexpected name.
I felt establishing a place in a clearly-defined top four was the Reds' aim for the season, although Arsenal, currently 5th after nine seasons spent finishing no lower than 2nd, have found that doing well in the Champions League and the Premiership in the same season is a tall order. The phenomenal 43 point swing from Arsenal to Liverpool in 12 months owes much to the Gunners' inconsistency this term, but also the 21 points the Reds have already added to their 2005 total.
A year ago Arsene Wenger compared Liverpool reaching the final in Istanbul with Millwall making the FA Cup final. I take it Mr Wenger is not being so demeaning about his own team's efforts. Arsenal are so far behind in the league, Liverpool have established a clear top three – although I fully expect the Gunners to be back challenging next season. But they are no longer the better side.
With three English teams reaching European finals within a year, it's fair to say the Premiership is currently a very strong league, as the country gets back to the levels of 20 years ago in continental tournaments. Rafa Benítez arrived in England when the competition was fierce.
I felt 70-75 points was a realistic target this season – even after the difficult start. Even I, with my big red positivity hat on, never expected the Reds to be one win away from 82 points; I'm always happy to be proven wrong by the team exceeding my expectations.
But next season is when it will get really interesting. Ten months ago I made the point that teams do not jump from 5th to 1st anymore. So the aim was always to get as close to Chelsea as possible, regroup and redouble the efforts ahead of 2006/07.
The first stage of that aim has clearly been successful; the next part is to bolster the squad with quality additions, in order to improve the one or two areas still undermanned, and to hope all key men return fit and healthy from 'Germany 2006'. Then it will be up to everyone at the club to prove this season was indeed a stepping stone, and not the high-water mark of the Benítez years, as happened to Gérard Houllier in 2002.
Since the Premiership began (and by using that timeframe I don't wish to pretend the other 100+ years of top-flight football did not exist), the team which won the title – if it was their first in a long time – finished 2nd the season before.
Manchester United finished four points behind Leeds in 1992, but won the league a year later. In 1994, Blackburn finished 2nd, eight points behind United, and won the league in 1995. In 1997 Arsenal finished 3rd –– although level on points with 2nd-placed Newcastle United and seven behind Manchester United; Arsenal won the league a year later. Then in 2004 Chelsea finished 2nd, with 79 points to Arsenal's 90, a year before landing their first title in 50 years.
With each of those 2nd-placed teams the gap to the eventual champions was fairly substantial. By becoming champions 12 months later they were not making up a difference of a point or two; on average, it was 7.5 points by which they trailed the previous season, with the highest jump made by Chelsea, who were 11 points in arrears of Arsenal in 2004. The closest the Reds can get to Chelsea this season is 9 points, but could still end up double that.
While 37 points is an impossible gap to overhaul in one single year, especially with the pursued team showing no signs of under-performing, a dozen-or-so makes it far more interesting.
Difficult patches
The Reds had two difficult patches in a season of otherwise near-faultless results. Early on, performances were mostly good, but games could not be won.
A similar thing happened in the New Year, although this time the performances were a little more inconsistent with the team looking tired, while it was right in the middle of the Great Strikers' Drought. At the time one newspaper described it as Liverpool's worst strikeforce for 40 years; in the last six weeks, those four strikers have scored 16 goals. And that's not including the goals from sometime-striker, Luis Garcia.
Back in February, Manchester United's £60m strikeforce was held up as an example of the quality Liverpool lacked. Now United have failed to score in three of their last four games, and 2nd place will go down to the final game of the season as a result.
Those difficult spells for Liverpool undermined some excellent periods of form and consistency, but then that's how seasons tend to go – it's rarely all smooth sailing.
The interesting thing is that Liverpool played all four league fixtures against Chelsea and Manchester United during the two fallow periods. These were the six-pointers, and the timing was not beneficial. We saw the difference last week in playing Chelsea when in form and full of goals.
But you have to play teams when the fixture list says. That's all part of the unpredictability of football. These will be the four most crucial games next year, and if the Reds can go into them in better form, as seems likely, it will have a big effect on the league table.
The two successful periods of the season have been characterised by record-breaking runs. Ten consecutive league wins at the end of 2005 (falling one short of the club record), which coincided with the run of 1,014 minutes without conceding a goal in all competitions. With two games left, the team remains capable of breaking the club record for most clean sheets in a season. Victory at Portsmouth, and it will overtake the win percentage of the great 1987/88 side.
And now 10 straight wins in all competitions, the best run since 1990; the hope has to be to make that 12 in a row. Plus there's a midfielder with 21 goals – something you don't see too often. One more goal for Fernando Morientes and that will mean five players in double figures for the season – although only one in double figures in the league.
What the Reds need to do is start next season with a similar impressive run, and give themselves something substantial to build on. This season there were too many players going into the spine of the side to expect everything to gel instantaneously.
While things might have been different during those difficult periods, I don't believe in focusing on 'what ifs'. I think it's too easy to say 'if we'd won this game and that game, we'd be Champions'. Win games you ended up losing, and you might have lost subsequent games that were won. Who knows? While winning usually makes it easier the following week, it might also breed complacency. Sometimes you need to lose to have a big soul-searching moment, before going on a long unbeaten run.
The main 'what if' will be if the Reds draw at Portsmouth and United lose at home to Charlton. Then goal difference will be analysed to death. 'If only' the Reds had scored more goals.
If the team hadn't already exceeded expectations, that might be a valid point. But you could just as easily focus on all the clean sheets – 'what if' Reina hadn't made that remarkable save? 'What if' Carragher hadn't made that last-ditch tackle?
Whatever happens in the two remaining games, it's been a hugely impressive season. Since 1992, no team has finished 3rd with a tally as high as 79 points, let alone the 82 still possible. That also includes 42-game seasons, rather than the current 38.
The last team to do so was West Ham, with 84 points in 1986, although again that was over 42 games. Not that being the 'best' 3rd-placed side in English league history is an honour the Reds will be celebrating, of course. But it puts things into perspective.
Two more wins, and we can all put this marathon season to bed – and hopefully the Reds will pick up where they left off in August.
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